Fine-Scale Species Distribution Modeling of Abies koreana across a Subalpine Zone in South Korea for In Situ Species Conservation

Abstract

Severe declines in the population of Abies koreana, a conifer native to the subalpine regions of South Korea, are likely a consequence of climate change. However, local-scale modeling of the species’ spatial distribution has seen limited application to in situ conservation policies. Therefore, we intended for this study to examine the applicability of fine-scale species distribution modeling of A. koreana in the Mt. Jiri National Park area in S. Korea in order to explore candidate areas for its in situ conservation. We simulated the potential habitat of the species in the area with four separate models using different dominance patterns, then created an index based on habitability probabilities and residual durations to determine priority conservation areas. Under the highest sensitivity of potential habitats to temperature (spatially downscaled based on geomorphological characteristics), rapid habitat reduction occurred under climate warming in all experiments. At the regional scale, hydrological characteristics such as precipitation and slope characterized different secondary habitat distributional patterns among the experiments. Final conservation priority sites were identified based on specified criteria for the designed index. Our results suggest that a fine-scale modeling system with adequate spatial resolution of environmental inputs is advantageous in representing local habitat characteristics of A. koreana and can be applied to in situ conservation strategies.