Risk Propagation Evolution Analysis of Oil and Gas Leakage in FPSO Oil and Gas Processing System by Mapping Bow-Tie into Directed Weighted Complex Network

Abstract

An innovative methodology is proposed to identify potential risk factors and possible accident escalation consequences, and to determine the evolution of an accident from cause to consequence, thereby to identify the most probable path and discover key risk factors along the path rapidly. Based on the principle of a directed weighted complex network (DWCN), the bow-tie (BT) model, risk entropy and the improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm are integrated into this methodology. First, the qualitative analysis of risk evolution based on the BT model is carried out. The evolution development based on accident suppression can be divided into two stages: accident precursor stage and accident evolution stage. Then, a new method for mapping BT into DWCN is proposed. Lastly, the shortest path analysis of risk evolution based on the IACO algorithm is carried out, fuzzy set theory (FST) is introduced to calculate the failure probability of risk factors, and risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of risk propagation. Thus, the IACO algorithm can be used to calculate the shortest path of risk evolution. The proposed method is applied to oil and gas leakages in the FPSO oil and gas processing system. The results show that it is an effective method to identify the shortest evolution path and the most vulnerable risk factors.