A Model Predicting the Maximum Face Slab Deflection of Concrete-Face Rockfill Dams: Combining Improved Support Vector Machine and Threshold Regression

Abstract

The deformation of concrete-face rockfill dams (CFRDs) is a key parameter for the safety control of reservoir and dam systems. Rapid and accurate estimation of the deformation characteristics of CFRDs is a top priority. To realize this, we proposed a new model for predicting the maximum face slab deflection (FD) of CFRDs, combining the threshold regression (TR) and the improved support vector machine (SVM). In this paper, based on the collected 71 real measurement data from engineering examples, we constructed an adaptive hybrid kernel function with high precision and generalization ability. We optimized the selection of the main parameters of the SVM by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Meanwhile, we clustered the deformation parameters according to the dam height by the TR. It significantly contributes to the accuracy and generalization of the model. Finally, a prediction model for the FD characteristics of CFRDs combining TR and improved SVM was developed. The new prediction model can overcome the nonlinear abrupt feature of the sample data and achieve high precision with R2 greater than 0.8 in the final testing set. Our model is more accurate with faster convergence compared to the previous model. This study provides a more accurate model for predicting maximum face slab deflection and lays the foundation for safety control and evaluation of dams.