Affiliation:
1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. Climate Center of Qinghai, Xining 810001, China
Abstract
This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the near-term (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), and long-term (2076–2100) periods under three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–45, and SSP5–8.5 relative to the reference period (1986–2010), based on the runoff simulation through the Huayuankou hydrological station using the HBV-D hydrological model, which was forced by a statistically downscaling dataset. The results indicate that water shortage would still threaten the Yellow River because annual runoff will remain below 1000 m3/year, although water scarcity would be alleviated to some degree. More and larger floods will happen in summer in the 21st century, especially in the long-term period under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. More Hydrological droughts will occur during July–October, and some extreme droughts would likely exceed the historical largest magnitudes in July and August in the long term under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Scientific Research on Public Interest
Science and Technology Department Program of Qinghai
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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