Habitat Suitability Analysis and Future Distribution Prediction of Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Qinling Mountains, China

Abstract

Climate change has triggered a series of global problems, posing a huge threat to the distribution of many plants and animals, especially endangered species such as the giant panda. Therefore, predicting the distribution of habitat quality under climate change conditions is of great significance for protecting these species. In this study, we examined the correlation between suitable habitat index and ecosystem services using 260 occurrence records and 13 environmental factors with giant pandas as the model species. The species distribution models can also be employed to predict and compare the potential geographical distribution of giant pandas at present and in the 2050s and 2090s in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province. The results show the following: (1) The relationship between suitable habitat index and ecosystem services of giant panda is not uniform. (2) From 2040 to 2100, the existing habitats may decrease by 47.8% to 98.5%. (3) The main direction of change in the center of the distribution of the giant panda’s habitat is to migrate first eastward and then northwestward. Our results regarding the potential distribution pattern of giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains and their response to climate change can provide important references for optimizing the conservation and habitat management of wild giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains.