Research on the Correlation between Work Accidents and Safety Policies in China

Abstract

In China, safety policies interfere with the occurrence of work accidents in the form of guidance and restrictions. In this study, the impact of types of safety policies on work accident prevention is quantitatively analyzed. Based on a statistical analysis of China’s safety policies and work-related accidents from 2000 to 2020, the following four policy indexes that reflect the impact of safety policies are identified: the stringency level of the policy; the scope; its technical content; and its industrial target. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used, and a dynamic analysis of the model is conducted with an impulse response function. The model’s degree of fit is 92.9%, the number of deaths and the number of safety policies are linearly related, and the relative error between the fitted values and the real values is approximately 5%. The negative correlation between the death rate per 100 million yuan and the stringency level, scope, technical content, and industrial targets of safety policies is first weak, then strengthened, and then weakens again over time. This study finds that the importance of safety policy indicators is different; especially, the strict safety policy has a long-term negative impact on mortality. For developing countries such as China, where the safety policy system is not yet perfect, increasing the number and implementation of safety policies can significantly improve the situation of production safety.