Oil Spill Scenarios in the Kotor Bay: Results from High Resolution Numerical Simulations

Abstract

A major threat for marine and coastal environment comes from oil spill accidents. Such events have a great impact on both the ecosystem and on the economy, and the risk increases over time due to increasing ship traffic in many sensitive areas. In recent years, numerical simulation of oil spills has become an affordable tool for the analysis of the risk and for the preparation of contingency plans. However, in coastal areas, the complexity of the bathymetry and of the orography requires an adequate resolution of sea and wind flows. For this reason, we present, to the best of the author’s knowledge, the first study on the subject adopting Large Eddy Simulations for both the low-atmosphere and sea dynamics in order to provide highly-resolved marine surface current and wind stress to the oil slick model, within a one-way coupling procedure. Such approach is applied to the relevant case of Kotor Bay (UNESCO heritage since 1979), in Montenegro, which is a semi-closed basin surrounded by mountains that is subject to an intense ship traffic for touristic purposes. Oil spill spots are tracked along ship paths, in two wind scenarios.