Assessment of the Impact of Technological Development and Scenario Forecasting of the Sustainable Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex

Abstract

The beginning of the 21st century for the fuel and energy complexes of most countries is characterized as a period of active restructuring and a fundamental shift in developmental priorities. The basis of these changes is technological development. Industry 4.0 technologies have particular importance in achieving maximum optimization of production processes. In the same way, they are applicable in establishing effective interaction between the energy sector and other sectors of the economy. The authors outline an approach to assessing the country’s fuel and energy balance state through the selected properties: sustainability, accessibility, efficiency, adaptability and reliability. Hence, a model of the fuel and energy complex was created on the example of the Russian Federation, considering the country’s territorial and functional division. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of the influence level of external challenges in conjunction with the accompanying technological development. The mathematical model allowed forecasting changes in the properties of the energy system. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecast the state of the fuel and energy balance. The results of the study are useful in compiling scenarios for the regional and entire development of the fuel and energy complex. Further model improvements should include an expansion of the number of counted industries and their relations.