Default Probabilities and the Credit Spread of Mexican Companies: The Modified Merton Model

Author:

Morales-Bañuelos Paula1,Fernández-Anaya Guillermo2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Departamento de Estudios Empresariales, Universidad Iberoamericana CDMX, Mexico City 01219, Mexico

2. Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad Iberoamericana CDMX, Mexico City 01219, Mexico

Abstract

This study aims to identify the model that best approximates the credit spread that should be fixed on debt instruments issued by both companies listed on the Mexican Stock Market, considering the particularities of the Mexican market. Five models were analyzed: Merton’s model, Brownian Motion Model, Power Law Brownian Motion Model, Bloomberg’s model, and the model presented in this paper, which includes the conformable derivatives, taking as a reference the change in the variable as other authors have done, and the Bloomberg corporate default risk model (DRSK) for publics firms. We concluded that the modified Merton model approximates, to a greater extent, the credit spreads that fix on a prime rate on the loans granted to Mexican non-financial companies.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Mathematics,Engineering (miscellaneous),Computer Science (miscellaneous)

Reference59 articles.

1. Tasa de política monetaria en México ante los efectos del COVID-19;Rev. Mex. Econ. Finanz.,2020

2. Ozili, P., and Arun, T. (2023). Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruption in the Global Economy, IGI Global.

3. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review;Nicola;Int. J. Surg.,2020

4. Gopinath, G. (2020). Limiting the Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus with Large Targeted Policies, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

5. How Important are Terms of Trade Shocks;Uribe;Int. Econ. Rev.,2018

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3