Development of a System Dynamics Model to Guide Retail Food Store Policies in Baltimore City

Abstract

Policy interventions to improve food access and address the obesity epidemic among disadvantaged populations are becoming more common throughout the United States. In Baltimore MD, corner stores are a frequently used source of food for low-income populations, but these stores often do not provide a range of affordable healthy foods. This research study aimed to assist city policy makers as they considered implementing a Staple Food Ordinance (SFO) that would require small stores to provide a range and depth of stock of healthy foods. A System Dynamics (SD) model was built to simulate the complex Baltimore food environment and produce optimal values for key decision variables in SFO planning. A web-based application was created for users to access this model to optimize future SFOs, and to test out different options. Four versions of potential SFOs were simulated using this application and the advantages and drawbacks of each SFO are discussed based on the simulation results. These simulations show that a well-designed SFO has the potential to reduce staple food costs, increase corner store profits, reduce food waste, and expand the market for heathy staple foods.