Maximum Entropy Model Prediction of the Distributions of Two Sympatric Bean Weevil Species, Megabruchidius dorsalis (Fahraeus, 1839) and Bruchidius coreanus (Chûjô, 1937), under Various Climate Scenarios in Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

Megabruchidius dorsalis and Bruchidius coreanus are sympatric bean weevil species that bore into Gleditsia sinensis seeds, seriously affecting the commercial development of this plant. Here, we aimed to understand potential changes in the distribution of these two sympatric pests under current and future climate conditions to provide a reference for the prediction of their occurrence and facilitate their prevention and control. Based on empirical field data, we predicted the potential distribution of M. dorsalis and B. coreanus in suitable habitat areas using the MaxEnt model and explored the relationships among different spatiotemporal distributions using change analysis. Our findings showed that compared with the current situation, the suitable areas for M. dorsalis and B. coreanus were predicted to increase by 4.8141% and 3.1009%, respectively, in the future. Isothermality (BIO3), min temperature of coldest month (BIO6), and variance in precipitation (BIO15) in the coldest month were determined to be the main factors restricting the current distribution of M. dorsalis and B. coreanus. Areas currently suitable for the two species are mainly in the central region of Guizhou and are predicted to move eastward in the future. Significant area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values for M. dorsalis (0.878) and B. coreanus (0.833) indicated that MaxEnt could be used to predict the potential habitats of these weevils, providing valuable information to inform their control in Guizhou Province.