Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Land Use and Land Cover in Black Soil Region of Northeast China Based on LMDI Simulation

Abstract

Land use change accounts for a large proportion of the carbon emissions produced each year, especially in highly developed traditional heavy industry and agriculture areas. In this study, we estimated the carbon emissions from land use in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China (BSRNC) from 1990 to 2020. We utilized seven periods of land use remote sensing image data spanning the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, with a 30-m grid resolution. Additionally, socio-economic data was incorporated into the analysis. The preprocessing of the remote sensing images involved several steps using ENVI 5.5, including radiometric correction, fusion, mosaic, and cropping. The land types were classified into six major categories: cropland, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land, and unused land, using the LUCC classification system. The IPCC coefficient method was used to calculate the trends in carbon emissions from land use, and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was applied to analyze the influencing factors. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the net carbon emissions from land use in the BSRNC increased from 11.91 × 104 t to 253.29 × 104 t, with an annual growth rate of 8.04%. (2) Spatially, land use carbon emissions exhibited an agglomeration pattern that gradually weakened and the regional emission differences gradually narrowed. (3) Income level was identified as the most important factor influencing land use carbon emissions in the BSRNC from 1990 to 2020. Land use efficiency had a inhibitory effect on net carbon emissions, reducing land use carbon emissions by 1730.63 × 104 t.