The Evaluation and Sensitivity of Decline Curve Modelling

Abstract

The development of prediction tools for production performance and the lifespan of shale gas reservoirs has been a focus for petroleum engineers. Several decline curve models have been developed and compared with data from shale gas production. To accurately forecast the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas reservoirs, consistent and accurate decline curve modelling is required. In this paper, the current decline curve models are evaluated using the goodness of fit as a measure of accuracy with field data. The evaluation found that there are advantages in using the current DCA models; however, they also have limitations associated with them that have to be addressed. Based on the accuracy assessment conducted on the different models, it appears that the Stretched Exponential Decline Model (SEDM) and Logistic Growth Model (LGM), followed by the Extended Exponential Decline Model (EEDM), the Power Law Exponential Model (PLE), the Doung’s Model, and lastly, the Arps Hyperbolic Decline Model, provide the best fit with production data.