Coupling Relationship between Urbanization and Green Total Factor Productivity in the Context of Population Shrinkage: Evidence from the Rust Belt Region of China

Abstract

Northeast China, regarded as China’s Rust Belt, has been dealing with numerous issues related to societal transformation and ecological concerns. Data indicate that Northeast China has already become the most severely depopulated region. It is crucial for the region’s sustainable growth to figure out how to balance ecological and urban development in the face of population shrinkage. First, we measured the population shrinkage, urbanization, and green total factor productivity (GTFP) of each city. Second, we calculated the degree of coordination between urbanization and GTFP and spatially visualized it. Finally, we analyzed the influencing factors through further empirical evidence. The findings showed that Northeast China’s cities were generally becoming smaller in terms of population. Urbanization and GTFP both exhibited a climbing tendency, and overall coordination between the two grew gradually. The level of coordination declined as population shrinkage increased. Governmental, technological, and economic factors influenced the level of coordination. The role played by factors influencing coordinated development varied at different levels of shrinkage. The findings not only provide a new research perspective for understanding the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological environment in Northeast China, but also provide insights for further improving the relevant policies and promoting the sustainable development and transformation of the region.