Reinforcement Learning-Enabled Electric Vehicle Load Forecasting for Grid Energy Management

Abstract

Electric vehicles are anticipated to be essential components of future energy systems, as they possess the capability to assimilate surplus energy generated by renewable sources. With the increasing popularity of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), conventional internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles are expected to be gradually phased out, thereby decreasing greenhouse gases and reliance on foreign oil. Intensive research and development efforts across the globe are currently concentrated on developing effective PHEV charging solutions that can efficiently cater to the charging needs of PHEVs, while simultaneously minimizing their detrimental effects on the power infrastructure. Efficient PHEV charging strategies and technologies are necessary to overcome the obstacles presented. Forecasting PHEV charging loads provides a solution by enabling energy delivery to power systems based on anticipated future loads. We have developed a novel approach, utilizing machine learning methods, for accurately forecasting PHEV charging loads at charging stations across three phases of powering (smart, non-cooperative, and cooperative). The proposed Q-learning method outperforms conventional AI techniques, such as recurrent neural and artificial neural networks, in accurately forecasting PHEV loads for various charging scenarios. The findings indicate that the Q-learning method effectively predicts PHEV loads in three scenarios: smart, non-cooperative, and cooperative. Compared to the ANN and RNN models, the forecast precision of the QL model is higher by 31.2% and 40.7%, respectively. The Keras open-source set was utilized to simulate three different approaches and evaluate the efficacy and worth of the suggested Q-learning technique.