Hydrological Drought Forecasting Using Machine Learning—Gidra River Case Study

Abstract

Drought is one of many critical problems that could arise as a result of climate change as it has an impact on many aspects of the world, including water resources and water scarcity. In this study, an assessment of hydrological drought in the Gidra River is carried out to characterize dry, normal, and wet hydrological situations by using the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) methodology. The water bearing coefficient is used as the index of the hydrological drought. As machine and deep learning are increasingly being used in many areas of hydroinformatics, this study is utilized artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machine (SVM) models to predict the hydrological drought in the Gidra River based on daily average discharges in January, February, March, and April of the corresponding year. The study utilized in total 58 years of daily average discharge values containing 35 normal and wet years and 23 dry years. The results of the study show high accuracy of 100% in predicting hydrological drought in the Gidra River. The early classification of the hydrological situation in the Gidra River shows the potential of integrating water management with the deep and machine learning models in terms of irrigation planning and mitigation of drought effects.