COVID-19 in Toronto: A Spatial Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on a global scale. Evident signs of spatial-explicit characteristics have been noted. Nevertheless, publicly available data are scarce, impeding a complete picture of the locational impacts of COVID-19. This paper aimed to assess, confirm, and validate several geographical attributes of the geography of the pandemic. A spatial modeling framework defined whether there was a clear spatial profile to COVID-19 and the key socio-economic characteristics of the distribution in Toronto. A stepwise backward regression model was generated within a geographical information systems framework to establish the key variables influencing the spread of COVID-19 in Toronto. Further to this analysis, spatial autocorrelation was performed at the global and local levels, followed by an error and lag spatial regression to understand which explanatory framework best explained disease spread. The findings support that COVID-19 is strongly spatially explicit and that geography matters in preventing spread. Social injustice, infrastructure, and neighborhood cohesion are evident characteristics of the increasing spread and incidence of COVID-19. Mitigation of incidents can be carried out by intertwining local policies with spatial monitoring strategies at the neighborhood level throughout large cities, ensuring open data and adequacy of information management within the knowledge chain.