Environmental, Geographical, and Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism in China: A Mixed-Effects Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of inbound tourism in China, utilizing a mixed-effects gravity model to analyze data from urban clusters around China’s three major airports. The research methodology of the study includes applying advanced econometric techniques, such as the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation, to ensure robust and accurate results. The study focuses on international tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings, identifying key drivers such as tourism resources, transportation safety, and service quality. Our findings indicate a 10% increase in per capita GDP correlates with a 0.88% rise in inbound tourist numbers. Additionally, proximity to major urban centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou significantly influences tourist arrivals, with every 100 km increase in distance resulting in a 5.56% decrease in tourist numbers. The study also explores the impact of environmental factors on tourism, suggesting that improvements in green coverage and reductions in industrial waste and traffic fatalities could enhance tourist arrivals. Conversely, environmental protection measures can both positively and negatively impact tourism. This research provides a strategic blueprint for policymakers and professionals in tourism and environmental sustainability, emphasizing the importance of integrated environmental sustainability in tourism development strategies. The model accounts for up to 79% of the variability in inbound tourism flows, offering robust evidence that economic and policy dimensions impact tourism.