Assessing Sustainable Development in Community Welfare and Economic Resilience to Extreme Weather in Indonesia

Abstract

In recent decades, Indonesia has experienced a surge in natural disasters, resulting in increased casualties and disruptions to economic growth and welfare. This study investigates the impact of various types of natural disasters, focusing on how economic growth (measured by provincial GDP) and welfare levels (measured by the Human Development Index, HDI) influence the number of victims affected by extreme weather. Data on gross regional domestic product and the Human Development Index for each province in Indonesia were obtained from Statistics Indonesia. We employed multivariable negative binomial regression to analyze the relationships between the number of victims affected by extreme weather, provincial HDI, and provincial GDP. The results indicate significant correlations between provincial GDP, HDI, and the number of victims. Higher HDI correlates with fewer victims, whereas higher GDP is associated with an increase in victims. Additionally, we used the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method, identifying two clusters as the optimal model. Cluster 1 comprises 31 provinces, while Cluster 2 comprises 3 provinces, with the latter highlighting the provinces with the highest disaster risk. Consequently, provinces such as West Java, Central Java, and East Java require heightened attention from various stakeholders involved in disaster management efforts. By examining these relationships, our study contributes to the understanding of sustainable development and resilience against natural disasters. It underscores the importance of improving welfare and economic policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.