Damage Effectiveness Calculation of Hitting Targets with Ammunition Based on Bayesian Multinomial Distribution

Abstract

Owning to the fact that ammunition can cause varying degrees of damage to its target, this article presents a damage effectiveness calculation method of hitting targets with ammunition based on Bayesian multinomial distribution to solve the problems of complex processes, few trial times and difficult calculations of damage probability in target-hitting tests with high-tech ammunition, according to a calculation index of damage effectiveness about the occurrence probability of different damage. Based on the concept of symmetry, the idea of “divide damage level—determine distribution—integrate information—solve distribution” is adopted. Firstly, this paper describes the damage effectiveness test of ammunition attacking targets with multiple distributions; secondly, this paper integrates the damage effectiveness information of ammunition strike targets with Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (D–S evidence theory) and symmetry advantage; finally, this paper attempts to solve the symmetric posterior distribution of damage effectiveness parameters with Bayesian theory and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The result demonstrates that this method is very significant in improving the calculation accuracy of ammunition damage effectiveness, which could describe the damage effectiveness of ammunition in detail by integrating the prior information with multiple types of damage effectiveness.