Associating Synoptic-Scale Weather Patterns with Aggregated Offshore Wind Power Production and Ramps

Abstract

Large-scale weather patterns and their variability can influence both the amount of wind power production and its temporal variation, i.e., wind power ramps. In this study, we use a self-organizing map to cluster hourly sea level pressure into a discrete number of weather patterns. The dependency of wind power production and wind power ramps on these weather patterns is studied for the Belgian offshore wind farm fleet. A newly developed wavelet-surrogate ramp-detection algorithm is used for the identification of wind power ramps. It was observed that low-pressure systems, southwesterly and northeasterly wind flows are often associated with high levels of wind power production. Regarding wind power ramps, the type of transition between weather patterns was shown to determine whether ramp up or ramp down events would occur. Ramp up events tend to occur due to the transition from a high-pressure to a low-pressure system, or the weakening of the intensity of a deep low-pressure system. The reverse is associated with ramp down events.