Spatial and Temporal Variability Characteristics and Driving Factors of Extreme Precipitation in the Wei River Basin

Abstract

As global climate change intensifies, the global atmospheric circulation process is undergoing significant changes, and the local water vapor pattern has also changed. This study takes the Wei River Basin as the research area. Firstly, an evaluation index system for extreme precipitation was established, and the time-series characteristics of the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme precipitation were analyzed. Statistical methods were used to analyze the non-consistency in time-series changes in extreme precipitation indicators. Using spatial heterogeneity analysis methods, the spatial variation differences in extreme precipitation in the Wei River Basin were identified. This study selected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, global land-ocean temperature index (LOTI), and land surface temperature (LST) index to quantitatively evaluate the impact of climate change on regional extreme precipitation and analyzed the correlation between temperature and extreme precipitation, identifying the key driving factors of extreme precipitation changes. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The southern region of the Wei River Basin experiences more frequent and intense precipitation events, while the northern region experiences relatively few. (2) From 1981 to 2021, the intensity, frequency, and duration of precipitation events in the Wei River Basin gradually increased, with the most significant increase in extreme precipitation in the Guanzhong Plain. (3) Global climate change has an important impact on precipitation events in the Wei River Basin. The increase in the ENSO, LOTI, and LST indices may indicate an increase in the probability of drought and flood events in the Wei River Basin. The relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature present a peak structure. This conclusion is helpful to better understand the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in the Wei River Basin and provides some support for the response to extreme meteorological events under the background of future climate change.