Predictive Modeling of Photovoltaic Panel Power Production through On-Site Environmental and Electrical Measurements Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Weather disturbances pose a significant challenge when estimating the energy production of photovoltaic panel systems. Energy production and forecasting models have recently been used to improve energy estimations and maintenance tasks. However, these models often rely on environmental measurements from meteorological units far from the photovoltaic systems. To enhance the accuracy of the developed model, a measurement Internet of Things (IoT) prototype was developed in this study, which collects on-site voltage and current measurements from the panel, as well as the environmental factors of lighting, temperature, and humidity in the system’s proximity. The measurements were then subjected to correlation analysis, and various artificial neural networks (ANNs) were implemented to develop energy estimations and forecasting models. The most effective model utilizes lighting, temperature, and humidity. The model achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.255326464. The ANN models are compared to an MLR model using the same data. Using previous power measurements and actual weather data, a non-autoregressive neural network (Non-AR-NN) model forecasts future output power values. The best Non-AR-NN model produces an RMSE of 0.1160, resulting in accurate predictions based on the IoT device.