Effect of Planning and Construction of Intercity Railways on the Economic Development of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration: An Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

Abstract

Efficient transportation is essential for regional economic development. Currently, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is accelerating the construction of intercity railways in the region to strengthen the links between cities. To provide a more detailed account, this study examined data spanning the years 2010–2021 across nine key cities in the Pearl River Delta. Employing a spatial Durbin model, we sought to uncover specific spatial patterns associated with intercity railways, particularly their pronounced impact on neighboring cities. Our quantitative findings, derived from the spatial Durbin model, revealed a statistically significant positive contribution of intercity railways to overall regional development. Contrary to initial concerns, the results indicate that intercity railways contribute significantly without exacerbating existing imbalances. However, according to the decomposition analysis of effects, most coefficients of the explanatory variables with a direct effect were found to be positive and significant, indicating their positive impact, while those with an indirect effect were found to be nonsignificant, suggesting that the effect of planning and construction of intercity railways on the economic development of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is currently at a stage of factor concentration. In conclusion, our study emphasizes the need for prioritizing regional connections in intercity railway construction. This strategy can facilitate production factor flow and foster the proactive development of transportation infrastructure, thereby ensuring a balanced and sustainable regional economic growth trajectory.