Research on the Spatial Dynamic Evolution of Digital Agriculture—Evidence from China

Abstract

Digital agriculture serves as a pivotal means of ushering in innovative agricultural practices and achieving sustainable agricultural development. Although agricultural digitalization has received increasing attention, the unbalanced development and regional disparities of digital agriculture are still key obstacles to sustainable agricultural development. Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2021, this study evaluates the development level of digital agriculture in China, and further analyzes the distribution pattern, spatial characteristics, and transition probabilities of digital agriculture from a regional perspective. The index system of the digital agriculture development level is constructed from five aspects: infrastructure, talent resources, agricultural informatization, the digitization of agricultural production processes, and agricultural production efficiency. Among these, infrastructure and talent resources reflect the resources needed for the development of digital agriculture; agricultural informatization and the digitization of the agricultural production process indicate the role of digitization in the process of agricultural development; and the agricultural production efficiency is the goal of the digital agriculture development, which is a critical criteria of its evaluation. The weighted analysis method of objective sequential analysis, which combines the dynamic level of indicators and sequential relationships, is used to assign weights to the indicators. In addition, to address the regional disparities in the development level of digital agriculture, kernel density estimation, Moran’s index, and (spatial) Markov chain analysis are applied to analyze the spatial dynamic evolution of digital agriculture in China. The findings reveal substantial regional disparities in digital agriculture development within China, particularly in the Western region, where development lags behind. Moreover, this study offers actionable policy recommendations for policymakers to strengthen regional infrastructure and talent cultivation, as well as other aspects of digital agriculture development, to mitigate regional differences and provide reference for other emerging countries.