Affiliation:
1. China Academy of Building Research, Beijing 100013, China
2. School of Civil Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
3. Institute for Urban Governance and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract
The building sector contributes to 50.9 percent of China’s carbon emissions. Due to the complexity of the assessment process, it is difficult to predict the entire life cycle carbon emissions of a building at the early stage of design. In this study, a whole-life carbon emission estimation model for the early stage of building design is developed based on comparison of the standard calculations and an analysis of stock cases. Firstly, the standard calculation methods in China, Japan and Europe were compared, and the boundary of the model was defined in three parts: production, construction and demolition and operation. Second, information on 68 examples of Chinese buildings was collected and divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 7:3. In the training set, the relationship between carbon emissions and the design parameters was searched, and a carbon emission estimation model applicable to different stages was constructed. Finally, the model was applied to the test set for validation. The results show that the calculation error of the model is within ±15%, and it can quickly estimate carbon emissions based on the design factors, which is helpful for carbon emission assessment work in the early stages of design.
Funder
Research and Demonstration of Low Carbon Emission Reduction Design Methods and Key Technologies for Hospitals and Biological Laboratory Buildings
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Subject
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Geography, Planning and Development,Building and Construction
Reference71 articles.
1. (2023, June 15). 2022 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction. Available online: Https://Www.Unep.Org/Resources/Publication/2022-Global-Status-Report-Buildings-and-Construction.
2. Challenges and Opportunities for Carbon Neutrality in China’s Building Sector—Modelling and Data;Hu;Build. Simul.,2022
3. China Association of Building Energy Efficiency (CABEE) (2022). 2022 China Building Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Research Report, CABEE. (In Chinese).
4. Tsinghua University Building Energy Conservation Research Center (2021). Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency, China Construction Industry Press. (In Chinese).
5. A Random Forest-Based Model for the Prediction of Construction-Stage Carbon Emissions at the Early Design Stage;Fang;J. Clean. Prod.,2021