Aspects of Heat Supply Security Management Using Elements of Decision Theory

Abstract

Security in heat supply systems plays an important role in social, technical and political terms. It includes three main components: energy security, security of heat supply, security of people. The differences concern the subject, area, scope, as well as the degree and purpose of the analyses. The article is a continuation of research conducted by the author, presenting the concept of security of heat supply as a necessary “umbrella” supported by reliability and system resilience to threats, constituting a set of actions aimed at minimizing the risk. The subject of the analysis of this article is the security of heat supply, analysed in the context of heat supply management to recipients and risk analysis related to the lack of heat supply. The elements of decision theory were used as adequate for this purpose. Different configurations of heat distribution in the system have been taken into account when determining the expected values of risk related to the occurrence of power limitation for various degrees of restrictions and various network configurations. The author’s use of elements of decision theory in heat supply systems illustrated at the work gives the opportunity to assess and manage the security of heat supply to the recipient. It takes into account the possibility of different heat distribution configurations in the system at the operational stage, as well as may be the basis for optimizing changes in the distribution of power supply areas and selecting the most advantageous network configuration at the design stage.