Drivers of Groundwater Change in China and Future Projections

Abstract

Observations worldwide have shown that in recent decades, groundwater depletion intensified notably in many regions. Understanding the interacting drivers of groundwater change enables better human adaptations to climate change and socioeconomic development. Here we use a structural equation model to quantify the contribution of natural and human-induced processes on the groundwater of China by using terrestrial water storage observed by GRACE in combination with climate and socioecological related data at a provincial scale. The results reveal that the influence of climate on groundwater change through indirect impact on the agriculture water consumption is larger than that through direct replenishment. Socioeconomic development contributes in the same order of magnitude as the direct replenishment by climate variabilities to groundwater. In general, forest plays an important role in reserving groundwater at a provincial scale. Based on future climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, it is projected that most regions in China will experience a greater groundwater depletion in the future and the variance among regions will become larger.