Who to Be Treated: Nomogram Using Self-Reported Periodontal Screening Instrument among English-Speaking Adults in Multi-Ethnic Singapore

Abstract

Periodontal disease is a major public health problem. This study aimed to develop a nomogram using a self-reported periodontitis screening instrument in predicting severe periodontitis (SP), defined by the World Workshop on Classification of Periodontal and Peri-Implant Diseases and Conditions, and evaluate its utility in clinical setting. An Akaike information criterion selected multivariable model was developed to predict SP using a self-reported questionnaire, with a nomogram developed based on its regression coefficients. Discriminatory capability was evaluated by Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Ability to predict SP of individual patients was evaluated with bootstrapping. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate its potential clinical utility by evaluating clinical net benefit at different thresholds. 58.1% of 155 participants were classified with SP. Older males without tertiary education, with ‘loose teeth’, ‘bone loss’ and ‘mouth rinse use’ had higher SP risk. The nomogram showed excellent discriminatory capability with Area under Curve of 0.83 (95% CI = (0.76, 0.89)), good calibration (intercept = 0.026) and slight overestimation of high risk and underestimation of low risk (slope = 0.834). DCA showed consistent clinical net benefit across the range of thresholds relative to assumption of ‘no patient’ or ‘all patient’ with SP. Our nomogram using a self-reported periodontitis instrument is useful in SP screening in English-speaking Singaporean adults.