Fitting Insurance Claim Reserves with Two-Way ANOVA and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Regression

Author:

De Andrés-Sánchez Jorge1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Social and Business Research Lab, Department of Business Administration, Campus de Bellissens, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43204 Reus, Spain

Abstract

A highly relevant topic in the actuarial literature is so-called “claim reserving” or “loss reserving”, which involves estimating reserves to be provisioned for pending claims, as they can be deferred over various periods. This explains the proliferation of methods that aim to estimate these reserves and their variability. Regression methods are widely used in this setting. If we model error terms as random variables, the variability of provisions can consequently be modelled stochastically. The use of fuzzy regression methods also allows modelling uncertainty for reserve values using tools from the theory of fuzzy subsets. This study follows this second approach and proposes projecting claim reserves using a generalization of fuzzy numbers (FNs), so-called intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), through the use of intuitionistic fuzzy regression. While FNs allow epistemic uncertainty to be considered in variable estimation, IFNs add bipolarity to the analysis by incorporating both positive and negative information regarding actuarial variables. Our analysis is grounded in the ANOVA two-way framework, which is adapted to the use of intuitionistic regression. Similarly, we compare our results with those obtained using deterministic and stochastic chain-ladder methods and those obtained using two-way statistical ANOVA.

Funder

Spanish Science and Technology Ministry

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference76 articles.

1. Hindley, D. (2017). Claims Reserving in General Insurance, Cambridge University Press.

2. Stochastic claims reserving in general insurance;England;Br. Actuar. J.,2002

3. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson;Schmidt;Variance,2008

4. Calculating insurance claim reserves with fuzzy regression;Fuzzy Sets Syst.,2006

5. Fuzzy insurance;Lemaire;ASTIN Bull. J. IAA,1990

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3