Characteristics of Debris Flow Activities at Different Scales after the Disturbance of Strong Earthquakes—A Case Study of the Wenchuan Earthquake-Affected Area

Abstract

Of the catastrophic earthquakes over the past few decades, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered the greatest number of landslides and deposited a large amount of loose material on steep terrains and deep gullies, which was highly conducive to the occurrence of post-earthquake debris flows. It is of great importance to clarify the evolution of debris flow activity for hazard evaluation, prediction, and prevention after a strong earthquake, especially in the face of large debris flow hazards. We established a long-time span database consisting of 1668 debris flow events before and after the earthquake, with information including the occurrence time, location, and scale (small, medium, and large). In order to analyze how the environmental background before and after the earthquake controlled the debris flow activity, we examined various controlling factors, including the material source, topography (relative relief and slope degree), rainfall, normalized vegetation index, and lithology. After completing the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the debris flow events in the database, a 10 × 10 km grid was introduced to grade the controlling factors in ArcGIS. Based on the same grid, the density of debris flow events for each scale in different time periods was calculated and graded. We introduced the certainty factor to figure out the spatial–temporal relationships between debris flow activities at each scale and the controlling factors. The results can provide guidance on how to dynamically adjust our strategies for debris flow prevention after a strong earthquake. Lastly, Spearman rank correlation analysis was performed to clarify the variation in the magnitude of the influence of controlling factors on the debris flow activities of different scales with time. This can provide a reference for the dynamic evaluation of debris flow hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area.