Dynamic and Non-Linear Analysis of the Impact of Diurnal Temperature Range on Road Traffic Accidents

Author:

Shiau Yuo-Hsien12,Yang Su-Fen3ORCID,Adha Rishan134ORCID,Peng Giia-Sheun56,Muzayyanah Syamsiyatul7

Affiliation:

1. Graduate Institute of Applied Physics, National Chengchi University, Taipei 11605, Taiwan

2. Research Center for Mind, Brain and Learning, National Chengchi University, Taipei 11605, Taiwan

3. Department of Statistics, National Chengchi University, Taipei 11605, Taiwan

4. Faculty of Social and Political Science, Muhammadiyah University of Mataram, Mataram 83115, Indonesia

5. Department of Neurology, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei 11217, Taiwan

6. Department of Medical Affairs and Planning, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei 11217, Taiwan

7. Department of Business Administration, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 413310, Taiwan

Abstract

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a significant indicator of climate change, and a previous study has shown its impact on human health. However, research investigating the influence of DTR on road traffic accidents is scarce. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the impact of changes in DTR on road traffic accidents. The present study employs two methods to address the complexities of road accidents. Firstly, panel data from 20 cities and counties in Taiwan are utilized, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed for estimation. Secondly, distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are used with quasi-Poisson regression analysis to assess the DTR’s lagged and non-linear relationships with road accidents using time series data from six Taiwanese metropolitan cities. The study results indicate that a decrease of 1 °C in DTR raises long-term road traffic accidents by 17.1%. In the short term, the impact of declining DTR on road accidents is around 4%. Moreover, the effect of low DTR values differs in each city in Taiwan. Three cities had high levels of road accidents, as evidenced by an increase in the relative risk value; two cities had moderate responses; and one city had a relatively lower response compared to high DTR values. Finally, based on the cumulative relative risk estimations, the study found that a low diurnal temperature range is linked to a high road traffic accident rate, especially during the lag-specific 0–5 months. The findings of this study offer fresh evidence of the negative impact of climate factor on road traffic accidents.

Funder

Taipei Veterans General Hospital

National Science and Technology Council

University System of Taiwan

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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