Proposal of an Agricultural Vulnerability Stochastic Model for the Rural Population of the Northeastern Region of Brazil
Author:
Silva Bruce Kelly da Nóbrega1, Costa Rafaela Lisboa2ORCID, Silva Fabrício Daniel dos Santos2ORCID, Vanderlei Mário Henrique Guilherme dos Santos2, da Silva Helder José Farias2ORCID, Júnior Jório Bezerra Cabral3, Costa Júnior Djailson Silva da1ORCID, Pedra George Ulguim4ORCID, Pérez-Marin Aldrin Martin1ORCID, Silva Cláudio Moisés Santos e5ORCID
Affiliation:
1. National Institute of the Semiarid, Campina Grande 58434-700, Brazil 2. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil 3. Institute of Geography, Development and Environment, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil 4. National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, São Paulo 12227-010, Brazil 5. Center for Exact and Earth Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal 59078-970, Brazil
Abstract
Agriculture is the world’s main economic activity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this activity is expected to be impacted by drought. In the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB), most agricultural activity is carried out by small rural communities. Local socio-economic data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques in this study to determine agricultural sensitivity to drought events (SeA) and agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). The climate data used to develop the risk factor (Rdrought) were the drought indicator with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the average number of drought disasters from 1991 to 2012. Conditional probability theory was applied to determine agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). Characterization of the risk of agricultural drought using the proposed methodology showed that the rainy season presents high risk values in the central region, covering areas of the states of Ceará, Piauí, Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Norte, as well as all areas of the semi-arid region. The risk ranged from high to medium. The results also indicated that part of the south of Bahia and the west of Pernambuco have areas of extreme agro-climatic sensitivity. Consequently, these states have an extreme degree of climate vulnerability during the region’s rainy season.
Funder
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico FAPEAL
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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