Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters through New Data Incorporation

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has required countries to implement different containment strategies to limit its spread, like strict or weakened national lockdown rules and the application of age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategies. These interventions have in turn modified the age-dependent patterns of social contacts. In our recent paper, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level, we identified, for the Italian case, specific virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model (under 60, and 60 years and over) in six different diseases transmission scenarios under concurrently adopted feedback interventions. An interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19 disease has been accordingly provided. In this paper, which can be viewed as a sequel to the previous one, we mainly apply the same general methodology therein (involving the same dynamic model) to new data covering the three subsequent additional scenarios: (i) a mitigated coordinated intermittent regional action in conjunction with the II vaccination phase; (ii) a super-attenuated coordinated intermittent regional action in conjunction with the II vaccination phase; and (iii) a last step towards normality in conjunction with the start of the III vaccination phase. As a new contribution, we show how meaningful updated information can be drawn out, once the identification of virulence parameters, characterizing the two age groups within the latest three different phases, is successfully carried out. Nevertheless, differently from our previous paper, the global optimization procedure is carried out here with the number of susceptible individuals in each scenario being left free to change, to account for reinfection and immunity due to vaccination. Not only do the slightly different estimates we obtain for the previous scenarios not impact any of the previous considerations (and thus illustrate the robustness of the procedure), but also, and mainly, the new results provide a meaningful picture of the evolution of social behaviors, along with the goodness of strategic interventions.