Understanding Electric Bicycle Users’ Mode Choice Preference under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Shanghai

Abstract

The electric bicycle is considered as an environmentally friendly mode, the market share of which is growing fast worldwide. Even in metropolitan areas which have a well-developed public transportation system, the usage of electric bicycles continues to grow. Compared with bicycles, the power transferred from the battery enables users to ride faster and have long-distance trips. However, research on electric bicycle travel behavior is inadequate. This paper proposes a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) framework to describe electric bicycle users’ mode choice behavior. Different from the long-standing use of utility theory, CPT considers travelers’ inconsistent risk attitudes. Six socioeconomic characteristics are chosen to discriminate conservative and adventurous electric bicycle users. Then, a CPT model is established which includes two parts: travel time and travel cost. We calculate the comprehensive cumulative prospect value (CPV) for four transportation modes (electric bicycle, bus, subway and private car) to predict electric bicycle users’ mode choice preference under different travel distance ranges. The model is further validated via survey data.