In Pursuit of New Spaces for Threatened Mammals: Assessing Habitat Suitability for Kashmir Markhor (Capra falconeri cashmeriensis) in the Hindukush Range

Abstract

Natural wild habitats are either destroyed or shrunk due to human interventions. Therefore, habitat evaluation is crucial for managing wildlife populations and designing robust conservation strategies. Species presence data and geographic information system (GIS) coupled with ground-breaking powerful statistical techniques have made such assessments possible. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to identify suitable habitats for Kashmir markhor (Capra falconeri cashmeriensis) in Malakand Division, Pakistan. MaxEnt was applied to 169 markhor sighting points and topographical and current bioclimatic variables. Results showed that the accuracy of the MaxEnt model was good (AUC = 0.889). Of the total area studied (8407.09 km2), 22.35% (1878.75 km2) was highly suitable and 32.63% (2743.53 km2) was moderately suitable for markhor. Protected areas including Chitral Gol National Park (CGNP), Tooshi-Sasha Conservancy (TSC), and Gehrait-Golain Conservancy (GGC) and their buffers were included in highly suitable habitats. MaxEnt also predicted highly suitable habitats in Kumrat and Kalam valleys. We believe that moderately suitable habitats identified in Jinjeret, Ursoon, Birir valley, and Bumborait valley have the potential to host markhor populations. Based on the results obtained in the current study, we strongly recommend expanding the current protected areas (PAs) network in the study area and strengthening it by inclusive conservation management with local communities.