Employment Trends in Northern Italy’s Medium-Sized Cities from 2012 to the Shock of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Group of Cities in Distress?

Abstract

In a globalised economy, metropolises seem to have an ‘extra gear’ compared to smaller urban centres: they attract the most skilled businesses, drive innovation in many fields and can count on material and immaterial assets that foster greater resilience to adverse events of various kinds. Against the dynamism of metropolises, which evolutionary paths do medium-sized cities (MSCs) follow? This paper focuses on the case of Northern Italy and explores employment trends between 2012 and 2020 in 189 MSCs with a population of between 20,000 and 200,000 inhabitants. The evolutionary trajectories of these cities and their varying specialisations are investigated over a period marked by a moderate recovery of the Italian economy following the Great Recession and by a further setback caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In general, in terms of employment performance, the 189 cities in question were less dynamic than the metropolises, but it is nevertheless necessary to look at their individual circumstances in detail. Furthermore, this work shows significant differences between the MSCs of the Northwest and Northeast in terms of evolutionary trajectories and specialisation profiles. The most problematic situations also relate to cities with a hub status in the wider context and do not only concentrate where a production structure is present that is linked to industry.