Spatial Analysis of Risk Exposure of Urban Trees: A Case Study from Bologna (Italy)

Abstract

In Europe, more than two-thirds of the population live in urban areas. The management of urban green areas and trees is becoming increasingly relevant involving different players and stakeholders, as well for keeping a focus on the Sustainable Development Goals. Society and policy makers are often unaware of the disservices that neglecting these areas can cause. Appropriate monitoring interventions can protect both citizens and trees themselves. The aim of the study was to assess the risk potential in urban trees in Bologna suburbs (Italy). For each tree in the city of Bologna, three target variables identifying the number and categories of streets, buildings, and walking and cycle paths near the tree were considered and used as covariates. A multiple regression model assessing the relationship between a dependent synthetic spatial variable (digital number, DN), proxy of the likelihood of tree failure, and the three independent covariates was estimated. Both the number of streets and walking and cycle paths in the area surrounding a tree are shown to be significantly associated with the DN value. The use of open data can assist in monitoring and maintaining urban green areas. The tool supports a virtuous circle between stakeholders in urban systems through sustainability and efficiency.