Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought Forecasting on Rivers of South India

Abstract

Extreme weather events such as droughts are catastrophic and can have serious consequences for people and the environment. Drought may be managed if measures are taken in advance. The success of this endeavor depends on a number of factors, not the least of which is accurate descriptions and measurements of drought conditions. Reducing the negative consequences of droughts requires an early forecast of drought conditions. The primary objective of this research is, hence, to establish a process for the assessment and prediction of drought. The drought evaluation was carried out using the standards established by the SPI and the Indian Meteorological Department. Maps of drought severity were generated using severe drought data. Thirty years’ worth of SPI readings was analyzed. Fuzzy-based drought forecasting model parameters were determined during a 25-year period, and the model was validated throughout the remaining years. The findings of this study can be used by the community to help combat the drought. Before the drought worsens, the local government can implement lifesaving mitigating measures.