City-Wide Firearm Violence Spikes in Minneapolis following the Murder of George Floyd: A Comparative Time-Series Analysis of Three Cities

Abstract

This study investigates the aftermath of a high-profile violent police incident as it relates to city-wide firearm violence. Utilizing two Midwest cities (Kansas City, Missouri and Omaha, Nebraska) as comparison cities, we assess whether violent firearm incidents increased in Minneapolis after the murder of George Floyd. Multiple interrupted time-series analyses showed statistically significant increases in weekly firearm incidents in Minneapolis (AME = 10.63, p < 0.05) and Omaha (AME = 1.47, p < 0.5) following the murder of George Floyd. No significant results were found in Kansas City. Similar relationships were found when examining monthly firearm incidents. The firearm spike in Minneapolis thus represents an approximate 10-fold increase in weekly firearm incidents relative to that observed in Omaha. We conclude, therefore, that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a substantially greater increase in firearm violence in Minneapolis than in the two comparison cities. Police training to reduce police violence and public health approaches to reduce urban firearm violence will alleviate the social and economic impacts of violence on federal and state governments.