Testing the Informal Development Stages Framework Globally: Exploring Self-Build Densification and Growth in Informal Settlements

Abstract

This article challenges the narrow definition of informal settlements as solely lacking a formal framework, which overlooks the dynamic city-making and urban design processes within these areas. Communities’ self-building processes and areas’ constant growth are indeed informal settlements’ most salient morphological features. The study builds upon the informal development stages (IDS) framework and explores how it applies globally. The research follows a sample of fifty informal settlements with a high change coefficient from the Atlas of Informality (AoI) across five world regions to explore how change and urban densification across IDS can be mapped in such areas using human visual interpretation of Earth observation (EO). The research finds evidence of IDS framework fitment across regions, with critical morphological differences. Additionally, the study finds that settlements can pass through all IDS phases faster than anticipated. The study identifies IDS as a guiding principle for urban design, presenting opportunities for policy and action. The study suggests that integrating IDS with predictive morphological tools can create valuable data to refine identification models further. Finally, the article concludes that an IDS approach can anticipate development and integrate into an urban design evolutionary process that adapts to the deprived areas’ current and future needs.