Longevity Modelling and Pricing under a Dependent Multi-Cohort Framework

Abstract

We propose a multi-cohort model that is able to capture the mortality correlation between different cohorts. The model is based on the Hull and White process to which we incorporate inter-generational risk factors, by modifying its stochastic part. We provide a pricing framework for a new survival forward contract under the Cost of Capital, risk-neutral and Sharpe approaches, allowing to cover the global multi-cohort longevity risk. We give numerical illustrations for Belgian cohorts, and we compute the price of the longevity derivative under the proposed methods, for different correlation levels.