Assessment of Long-Term Streamflow Response to Flash Drought in the São Francisco River Basin over the Last Three Decades (1991–2020)

Abstract

Flash droughts, characterized by a rapid onset and severe intensity, pose a serious threat to water resource management. Extensive research has indicated that drought has lagged impacts on streamflow. Nevertheless, the hydrometeorological conditions by which streamflow dynamics respond to drought within the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) remain ambiguous. To bridge this gap, we conducted a study on long-term streamflow responses to flash drought in the SFRB from 1991 to 2020, combining the Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI) and quantile streamflow with a trend analysis. This study employed the SAPEI, a daily drought index, to identify flash droughts and assess the response of streamflow to the identified events across the SFRB. Our findings reveal insights into the direct response of streamflow to flash drought conditions, stimulated by the application of the SAPEI for analysis of flash drought events. The interannual flash droughts fluctuated over the years, with the middle part of the SFRB experiencing frequent, longer flash droughts, while the south part encountered shorter but less frequent events. About 55% of the study area is trended towards drying conditions. A comparative analysis of the SAPEI and streamflow identified a synchronized response to the onset of flash drought events, but the recovery timescale for the SAPEI and streamflow varied among the events. This study enhances understanding of the flash-drought–streamflow relationship in the SFRB and provides theoretical support for addressing drought risks under climate change.