Groundwater LNAPL Contamination Source Identification Based on Stacking Ensemble Surrogate Model

Abstract

Groundwater LNAPL (Light Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid) contamination source identification (GLCSI) is essential for effective remediation and risk assessment. Addressing the GLCSI problem often involves numerous repetitive forward simulations, which are computationally expensive and time-consuming. Establishing a surrogate model for the simulation model is an effective way to overcome this challenge. However, how to obtain high-quality samples for training the surrogate model and which method should be used to develop the surrogate model with higher accuracy remain important questions to explore. To this end, this paper innovatively adopted the quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method to sample from the prior space of unknown variables. Then, this paper established a variety of individual machine learning surrogate models, respectively, and screened three with higher training accuracy among them as the base-learning models (BLMs). The Stacking ensemble framework was utilized to integrate the three BLMs to establish the ensemble surrogate model for the groundwater LNAPL multiphase flow numerical simulation model. Finally, a hypothetical case of groundwater LNAPL contamination was designed. After evaluating the accuracy of the Stacking ensemble surrogate model, the differential evolution Markov chain (DE-MC) algorithm was applied to jointly identify information on groundwater LNAPL contamination source and key hydrogeological parameters. The results of this study demonstrated the following: (1) Employing the QMC method to sample from the prior space resulted in more uniformly distributed and representative samples, which improved the quality of the training data. (2) The developed Stacking ensemble surrogate model had a higher accuracy than any individual surrogate model, with an average R2 of 0.995, and reduced the computational burden by 99.56% compared to the inversion process based on the simulation model. (3) The application of the DE-MC algorithm effectively solved the GLCSI problem, and the mean relative error of the identification results of unknown variables was less than 5%.