Machine Learning Prediction Model to Predict Length of Stay of Patients Undergoing Hip or Knee Arthroplasties: Results from a High-Volume Single-Center Multivariate Analysis

Abstract

Background: The growth of arthroplasty procedures requires innovative strategies to reduce inpatients’ hospital length of stay (LOS). This study aims to develop a machine learning prediction model that may aid in predicting LOS after hip or knee arthroplasties. Methods: A collection of all the clinical notes of patients who underwent elective primary or revision arthroplasty from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 was performed. The hospitalization was classified as “short LOS” if it was less than or equal to 6 days and “long LOS” if it was greater than 7 days. Clinical data from pre-operative laboratory analysis, vital parameters, and demographic characteristics of patients were screened. Final data were used to train a logistic regression model with the aim of predicting short or long LOS. Results: The final dataset was composed of 1517 patients (795 “long LOS”, 722 “short LOS”, p = 0.3196) with a total of 1541 hospital admissions (729 “long LOS”, 812 “short LOS”, p < 0.001). The complete model had a prediction efficacy of 78.99% (AUC 0.7899). Conclusions: Machine learning may facilitate day-by-day clinical practice determination of which patients are suitable for a shorter LOS and which for a longer LOS, in which a cautious approach could be recommended.