Non-Parametric and Robust Sensitivity Analysis of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model in the Tropical Andes Region
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Published:2023-04-06
Issue:4
Volume:14
Page:686
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ISSN:2073-4433
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Container-title:Atmosphere
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmosphere
Author:
Hinestroza-Ramirez Jhon E.1ORCID, Rengifo-Castro Juan David2, Quintero Olga Lucia1ORCID, Yarce Botero Andrés13, Rendon-Perez Angela Maria4
Affiliation:
1. Mathematical Modelling Research Group, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín 050022, Colombia 2. Semillero de Investigación en Modelado Matemático (SIMAT), Universidad EAFIT, Medellín 050022, Colombia 3. Department of Applied Mathematics, TU Delft, 2600 AA Delft, The Netherlands 4. Grupo de Investigación en Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín 050022, Colombia
Abstract
With the aim of understanding the impact of air pollution on human health and ecosystems in the tropical Andes region (TAR), we aim to couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the chemical transport models (CTM) Long-Term Ozone Simulation and European Operational Smog (LOTOS–EUROS), at high and regional resolutions, with and without assimilation. The factors set for WRF, are based on the optimized estimates of climate and weather in cities and urban heat islands in the TAR region. It is well known in the weather research and forecasting field, that the uncertainty of non-linear models is a major issue, thus making a sensitivity analysis essential. Consequently, this paper seeks to quantify the performance of the WRF model in the presence of disturbances to the initial conditions (IC), for an arbitrary set of state-space variables (pressure and temperature), simulating a disruption in the inputs of the model. To this aim, we considered three distributions over the error term: a normal standard distribution, a normal distribution, and an exponential distribution. We analyze the sensitivity of the outputs of the WRF model by employing non-parametric and robust statistical techniques, such as kernel distribution estimates, rank tests, and bootstrap. The results show that the WRF model is sensitive in time, space, and vertical levels to changes in the IC. Finally, we demonstrate that the error distribution of the output differs from the error distribution induced over the input data, especially for Gaussian distributions.
Funder
Universidad EAFIT The Colombian Ministry of Sciences and Technology MINCIENCIAS
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
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