Impact of Assimilating Conventional Observations on Short-Term Nearshore Wind Forecast over the East China Sea

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of assimilating conventional weather observations on the wind forecast over the nearshore region of the East China Sea. Multi-level wind measurements in the boundary layer from five masts near the coast were used to verify the numerical model forecasts. Four numerical experiments with a rapid update cycle were performed to forecast the wind field over the masts. The observation shows that the characteristics of the wind field are distinct between the onshore and offshore masts. The numerical forecasts were able to reproduce the main features of the observed wind field both onshore and offshore. However, the wind forecasts of the offshore masts showed larger BIAS and MAE than those onshore. The forecast skill was shown to be sensitive to different weather events and the choice of control variables in the assimilation. The use of new momentum control variables allows a smaller observation-minus-analysis field compared with the traditional control variables, and the resultant wind forecast showed significant improvements. Further tuning of the new control variable scheme showed little improvement of the wind forecast which demonstrates the importance of maintaining the balance between large-scale and small-scale fields in the analysis. The larger forecast error at the offshore masts was likely due to the distribution of conventional observations and the uncertainties in representing the marine boundary layer in numerical models.