Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall over the Philippines

Abstract

The Philippines is highly vulnerable to multiple climate-related hazards due to its geographical location and weak adaptation measures. Floods are the most catastrophic hazards that impact lives, livelihoods, and, consequently, the economy at large. Understanding the ability of the general circulation models to simulate the observed rainfall using the latest state-of-the-art model is essential for reliable forecasting. Based on this background, this paper objectively aims at assessing and ranking the capabilities of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed rainfall over the Philippines. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) v2.3 was used as a proxy to gauge the performance of 11 CMIP6 models in simulating the annual and rainy-season rainfall during 1980–2014. Several statistical metrics (mean, standard deviation, normalized root means square error, percentage bias, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen slope estimator, and skill score) and geospatial measures were assessed. The results show that that CMIP6 historical simulations exhibit satisfactory effectiveness in simulating the annual cycle, though some models display wet/dry biases. The CMIP6 models generally underestimate rainfall on the land but overestimate it over the ocean. The trend analysis shows that rainfall over the country is insignificantly increasing both annually and during the rainy seasons. Notably, most of the models could correctly simulate the trend sign but over/underestimate the magnitude. The CMIP6 historical rainfall simulating models significantly agree on simulating the mean annual cycle but diverge in temporal ability simulation. The performance of the models remarkably differs from one metric to another and among different time scales. Nevertheless, the models may be ranked from the best to the least best at simulating the Philippines’ rainfall in the order GFDL, NOR, ACCESS, ENS, MRI, CMCC, NESM, FIO, MIROC, CESM, TAI, and CAN. The findings of this study form a good basis for the selection of models to be used in robust future climate projection and impact studies regarding the Philippines. The climate model developers may use the documented shortcoming of these models and improve their physical parametrization for better performance in the future.