Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preceded by Extreme Heat Events in the Upper Midwestern United States

Abstract

Compound extreme events can potentially cause deadlier socio-economic consequences. Although several studies focused on individual extreme climate events, the occurrence of compound extreme events is still not well studied in the upper Midwestern United States. In this study, compound extreme precipitation preceded by extreme hot day events was investigated. Results showed a strong linkage between extreme precipitation events and extreme hot days. A significant increasing trend was noticed mainly in Iowa (10.1%), northern parts of Illinois (5.04%), and Michigan (5.04%). Results also showed a higher intensity of extreme precipitation events preceded by an extremely hot day compared to the intensity of extreme precipitation events not preceded by an extremely hot day, mostly in the central and lower parts of Minnesota, western and upper parts of Iowa, lower and upper parts of Illinois, parts of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin for 1950–2010. In other words, extreme heat contributed to more extreme precipitation events. Our findings would provide important insights related to flood management under future climate change scenarios in the region.