Quantitative Mechanisms of the Responses of Abrupt Seasonal Temperature Changes and Warming Hiatuses in China to Their Influencing Factors

Abstract

Abrupt temperature changes and warming hiatuses have a great impact on socioeconomic systems; however, their mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, the quantitative mechanisms of the responses of abrupt seasonal temperature changes and warming hiatuses in China to their influencing factors were analysed using the monthly mean temperature (Tav), mean minimum temperature (Tnav), and mean maximum temperature (Txav) from 622 meteorological stations in China covering 1951–2018, the CMIP6 model data, and data at large spatial scales, including Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) data. The results showed that the contributions of the influencing factors to the abrupt changes in Tav, Tnav, and Txav showed large spatial variability and peaked in the spring and summer and bottomed out in the autumn. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) greatly impacted the abrupt temperature changes in Northeast China and North China at a contribution rate of approximately 12%, strongly influenced the abrupt temperature changes south of the Yangtze River, and markedly influenced the abrupt temperature changes in Northwest China. The AMO had a large impact on temperature in most regions of China in all seasons except for the summer. The MEI mainly affected the abrupt seasonal temperature changes in the region between 25° N and 35° N. The Arctic oscillation (AO) substantially impacted the warming hiatuses in Northeast China in the winter at a contribution rate of approximately 12%. These influencing factors contributed less to warming hiatuses than to abrupt temperature changes. Among the regional influencing factors, AP and WS greatly impacted warming hiatuses, more so than abrupt temperature changes, while relative humidity (RH) and solar radiation (SR) contributed little to warming hiatuses.